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260211s2023 us b 001c0 eng
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▼a 2022044451
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▼a 9780593490501
▼q (hardcover) -
020
▼z 9780593490518
▼q (ebook) -
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▼a (KERIS)REF000020168418
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▼a DLC
▼b eng
▼c DLC
▼d DLC
▼e rda
▼d 211070 -
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▼a pcc
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▼a n-us---
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050
▼a JK1726
-
090
▼a JK1726
▼b T932 -
245
▼a End times :
▼b elites, counter-elites, and the path of political disintegration /
▼d Peter Turchin -
260
▼a New York :
▼b Penguin Press,
▼c 2023 -
300
▼a xv, 352 p. ;
▼c 25 cm -
504
▼a Includes bibliographical references (pages 303-337) and index
-
520
▼a "From the pioneering co-founder of cliodynamics, the ground-breaking new interdisciplinary science of history, a brilliant big-picture explanation for America's civil strife and its possible endgames Peter Turchin, one of the most interesting social scientists of our age by any measure, has infused the study of history with approaches and insights from other fields for over a quarter century. The Wealth Pump is the culmination of his work to understand what causes political communities to cohere and what causes them to fall apart, as applied to the current turmoil within the United States. Back in 2010, Nature magazine asked Turchin, along with other leading scientists, to provide a ten-year forecast. Based on his models, Turchin predicted that America was in a spiral of social disintegration that would lead to a breakdown in the political order ca 2020. As the years passed, and his prediction proved accurate in more and more respects, attention around his work grew. The Wealth Pump distills his framework, its empirical justification, and its highly relevant findings, into an accessible, thought-provoking book that puts the American story into broad historical context. The lessons of world history are clear, Turchin argues: when the equilibrium between ruling elites and the majority tips too far in favor of elites, political instability is all but inevitable. Before the industrial era, the imbalance between labor and capital, signaled by rising economic inequality, was usually caused by excessive population growth. For the past 250 or so years, it has been laissez-faire government, technological innovation, globalization, and immigration that have tended to disrupt the balance. Whatever the cause, when income inequality surges, the common people suffer, and prosperity flows disproportionately into the hands of the elites. This vicious cycle is the "wealth pump" -the mechanism that causes both the relative impoverishment of most people and the increasingly desperate competition among elites. And since the number of positions of real social power remains relatively fixed, the overproduction of elites inevitably leads to frustrated elite aspirants, who harness popular resentment to turn against the established order. History shows that when the elite is riven by too many claimants, when counter-elites are powerful enough to lead effective populist uprisings, then the death knell of the established order is nigh. In America, the wealth pump has been operating full blast for two generations. In historical terms, our current cycle of elite overproduction and popular immiseration is far along the path to violent political rupture. Time will tell whether Peter Turchin's warning is heeded"--
▼c Provided by publisher -
650
▼a Political stability
▼z United States -
650
▼a Elite (Social sciences)
▼x Political activity
▼z United States -
650
▼a Interdisciplinary approach in education
-
651
▼a United States
▼x Politics and government -
651
▼a United States
▼x History -
700
▼a Turchin, Peter,
▼d 1957-,
▼e author -
950
▼b $30
-
991
▼a 단행본
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상세정보
End times : elites, counter-elites, and the path of political disintegration
QR코드| 자료유형 : | 단행본 |
|---|---|
| ISBN : | 9780593490501 |
| ISBN : | |
| 분류기호 : | JK1726 |
| 서명/저자사항 : | End times : elites, counter-elites, and the path of political disintegration / Peter Turchin |
| 발행사항 : | New York : Penguin Press, 2023 |
| 형태사항 : | xv, 352 p. ; 25 cm |
| 서지주기 : | Includes bibliographical references (pages 303-337) and index |
| 요약 : | "From the pioneering co-founder of cliodynamics, the ground-breaking new interdisciplinary science of history, a brilliant big-picture explanation for America's civil strife and its possible endgames Peter Turchin, one of the most interesting social scientists of our age by any measure, has infused the study of history with approaches and insights from other fields for over a quarter century. The Wealth Pump is the culmination of his work to understand what causes political communities to cohere and what causes them to fall apart, as applied to the current turmoil within the United States. Back in 2010, Nature magazine asked Turchin, along with other leading scientists, to provide a ten-year forecast. Based on his models, Turchin predicted that America was in a spiral of social disintegration that would lead to a breakdown in the political order ca 2020. As the years passed, and his prediction proved accurate in more and more respects, attention around his work grew. The Wealth Pump distills his framework, its empirical justification, and its highly relevant findings, into an accessible, thought-provoking book that puts the American story into broad historical context. The lessons of world history are clear, Turchin argues: when the equilibrium between ruling elites and the majority tips too far in favor of elites, political instability is all but inevitable. Before the industrial era, the imbalance between labor and capital, signaled by rising economic inequality, was usually caused by excessive population growth. For the past 250 or so years, it has been laissez-faire government, technological innovation, globalization, and immigration that have tended to disrupt the balance. Whatever the cause, when income inequality surges, the common people suffer, and prosperity flows disproportionately into the hands of the elites. This vicious cycle is the "wealth pump" -the mechanism that causes both the relative impoverishment of most people and the increasingly desperate competition among elites. And since the number of positions of real social power remains relatively fixed, the overproduction of elites inevitably leads to frustrated elite aspirants, who harness popular resentment to turn against the established order. History shows that when the elite is riven by too many claimants, when counter-elites are powerful enough to lead effective populist uprisings, then the death knell of the established order is nigh. In America, the wealth pump has been operating full blast for two generations. In historical terms, our current cycle of elite overproduction and popular immiseration is far along the path to violent political rupture. Time will tell whether Peter Turchin's warning is heeded"-- Provided by publisher |
| 일반주제명 : | Political stability -- United States -- |
| 일반주제명 : | Elite (Social sciences) -- Political activity -- United States -- |
| 일반주제명 : | Interdisciplinary approach in education -- |
| 주제명(지명) : | United States Politics and government |
| 주제명(지명) : | United States History |
| 개인저자 : | Turchin, Peter, 1957-, author |
| 언어 | 영어 |
예약
- 1. 예약현황은 홈페이지 로그인 후 예약 페이지에 확인 가능합니다.
- 2. 도착 통보된 예약자료 대출을 원하지 않는 경우에는 예약 현황에서 취소할 수 있습니다.
- 3. 기타 문의사항은 도서관에 문의 바랍니다.
무인예약대출
- 1. 무인예약대출 현황은 홈페이지 로그인 후 무인예약대출 페이지에 확인 가능합니다.
- 2. 무인예약대출자료 대출을 원하지 않는 경우에는 무인예약대출 페이지에서 신청 또는 접수상태인 경우만 취소할 수 있습니다.
- 3. 희망대출일은 신청일로부터 최대 1주일 까지 가능합니다.
- 4. 희망대출일을 선택하지 않은 경우 대출대기 통보 후 1주일까지 기기에서 대출가능합니다.
- 5. 기타 문의사항은 도서관에 문의 바랍니다.
Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies / 2nd Ed
JK274 K62 2011
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