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Quantifying counterfactual military history First edition

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자료유형 :	단행본
ISBN :	9781138594524
ISBN :	9781138592384
ISBN :
분류기호 :	355.48
개인저자 :	Mackay, Niall J., author.
서명/저자사항 :	Quantifying counterfactual military history / Niall J. Mackay, Jamie Wood, Brennen Fagan, Christopher Price, Ian Horwood.
판사항 :	First edition.
발행사항 :	Boca Raton : CRC Press, an imprint of Taylor and Francis Group, 2023.
형태사항 :	228 p.: ill; 21 cm
총서사항 :	ASA-CRC series on statistical reasoning in science and society
서지주기 :	Includes bibliographical references and index.
내용주기 :	Could history have been otherwise? -- Could the Germans have won the Battle of Jutland? -- Could the Germans have won the Battle of Britain? -- Could the USA have prevailed in Vietnam? -- The road to Able Archer : counterfactual reasoning and the dangerous history of nuclear deterrence 1945-1983 -- Conclusions -- Appendix: Some mathematical background (with no equations).
요약 :	"Forces shaping human history are complex, but the course of history is undeniably changed on many occasions by conscious acts. These may be premeditated or responsive, calmly calculated or performed under great pressure. They may also be considered to be successful or catastrophic, but how are historians to make such judgments and appeal to evidence in support of their conclusions? Further, and crucially, how exactly are we to distinguish probable unrealized alternatives from improbable ones? This book describes some of the modern statistical techniques that can begin to answer this question, as well as some of the difficulties in doing so. Using simple, well-quantified cases drawn from military history, we claim that statistics can now help us to navigate the near-truths, the envelope around the events with which any meaningful historical analysis must deal, and to quantify the basis of such analysis. Quantifying Counterfactual Military History is intended for a general audience who are interested in learning more about statistical methods both in military history and for wider applications"-- Provided by publisher.
일반주제명 :	Imaginary wars and battles. --
일반주제명 :	Military art and science -- Decision making -- Mathematical models. --
일반주제명 :	Combat -- Mathematical models. --
일반주제명 :	Military history -- Methodology. --
기타형태 저록 :	Online version: Mackay, Niall J. Quantifying counterfactual military history First edition. Boca Raton : CRC Press, an imprint of Taylor and Francis Group, 2024 9780429488405
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